Johnson on the brink of third-straight title with Phoenix win

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11/09/2008 - Avondale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jimmie Johnson took a huge step closer towards capturing his record-tying third-consecutive Sprint Cup Series championship with a dominating victory in Sunday's Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Johnson led 217 of 313 laps and held off Kurt Busch in a green-white-checkered finish.

The victory was Johnson's seventh of the season and the 40th of his Sprint Cup career. He also became the first driver to win three races in a row at Phoenix.

Johnson now holds a 141-point lead over Carl Edwards, who finished fourth. If Johnson finishes 36th or better, regardless of Edwards' performance, in next weekend's season-finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he will clinch the title.

"I can't tell you how tough the last week has been," Johnson said. "It's just emotional regardless of where you're at if you have a big points lead or not. This is what I've worked my whole life for."

Johnson finished 15th last Sunday at Texas, his first finish outside the top-10 in this year's "Chase for the Sprint Cup." Edwards, who won at Texas, trimmed Johnson's lead to 106 points.

Now Edwards is hoping for a miracle in Homestead if he has any chance at winning the championship.

"Jimmie is just doing it, and he did a great job," Edwards said. "I think what we have to do is keep our heads up and go to Homestead. It's still possible, but not probable. I guarantee you we're just gonna go there and give it a 100% and hope something happens."

Johnson started on the pole, but Jamie McMurray passed Johnson to take the lead on the opening lap.

Sam Hornish, Jr. got loose and made contact with Elliott Sadler, causing the two to spin and hit the wall on Lap 19. Busch was the quickest off of pit road during the caution, while McMurray fell to seventh after a lengthy stop.

Johnson restarted fifth on Lap 24, but quickly moved to up to second just before the second caution came on Lap 30 when Brian Vickers cut a right rear tire and hit the wall hard.

When the race resumed on Lap 37, Johnson attempted to take the top spot from Busch, but the caution flag quickly came back out, this time for rain falling on the backstretch.

As the rain intensified by Lap 43, NASCAR stopped the race for 24 minutes.

Johnson chased down Busch and completed the pass as he took the lead for the first time on Lap 81.

Denny Hamlin and David Gilliland pitted on Lap 99 to begin a round of green- flag stops. Johnson came in two laps later and handed the lead back over to Busch, but Johnson was in front again on Lap 110.

At the half-way point, all four Hendrick Motorsports drivers were in the top- six, with Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Jeff Gordon running 1-2-3, and Casey Mears sixth.

But Gordon quickly fell back in the field as he struggled with power in his engine. By Lap 195, Johnson had put Gordon a lap down.

Gordon's engine expired on Lap 269 as he headed to the garage and called it a day.

"I felt it early on and started to lose some power," Gordon said. "I didn't pay too much attention to it, because I was still getting plenty of rpm, and the car was still running good. Then all of the sudden, it started really going down, and I felt it lose a cylinder."

Gordon is on the verge of his first winless season since his rookie year in 1993. His last victory came in October 2007 at Charlotte.

McMurray recaptured the lead on Lap 212 when he beat Johnson off of pit road during a caution. Johnson was held up during his stop.

However, Johnson quickly caught McMurray and dove underneath him to take back the top spot just after the restart on Lap 219. He led from there on out.

The sixth caution for debris on Lap 261 set up the final round of pit stops. Johnson remained the leader after he was the quickest out of the pits, while Edwards moved up to fourth, gaining three positions.

A major pileup occurred on Lap 273 when Juan Pablo Montoya bumped Casey Mears, causing Mears to spin as he collected several cars behind him. David Gilliland's car rested on top of Scott Speed's machine.

"I went through a cloud of smoke and the next thing was I started hitting something and I saw a little bit of fire," Speed said.

Scott Riggs, Bobby Labonte, Kyle Petty and Johnny Sauter were also involved in the incident. NASCAR halted the race again, this time for 18 minutes to clean up the track.

Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth made contact and spun on Lap 305. The 10th and final caution set up a green-white-checkered finish.

Busch attempted to steal the victory from Johnson during the final two lap but came up two car lengths short of accomplishing it.

"We were pretty good today but not that good," Busch said. "What Jimmie's team is building on and what they're doing to win three championships in a row is something pretty special."

McMurray finished third, while Hamlin came in fifth.

Earnhardt, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton and David Ragan completed the top-10.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.