Fielder waiting on the Rangers

Baseball Betting Lines

01/18/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's starting to become clear that Prince Fielder wants no part of playing for the Washington Nationals. If he had he would have been introduced at Nationals Park weeks ago.

The Texas Rangers are his first choice. So much so that he is willing to wait for them, while they try to get Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish to put pen to paper.

Either way it should all come to a head this week, as Darvish has a Wednesday deadline to come to an agreement with the Rangers. Texas, of course, posted a record $51.7 million for him and most expect a deal to be ironed out by the 5 p.m. (ET) deadline.

So then the question becomes can the Rangers fit both players?

In a word. Absolutely. Let's not forget Texas is now among the big boys in Major League Baseball. They might not be the superpowers that are the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, but back-to-back American League pennants and more importantly, a 20-year, $1.6-billion television contract with Fox Sports that was agreed to in 2010 puts them awfully close.

If anything they need to keep pace with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who in case you haven't heard added Albert Pujols and the Rangers' best pitcher from a year ago, C.J. Wilson, this winter.

Surprisingly, the market hasn't really come together for a 27-year-old slugger, who hit 38 home runs and drove in 120 runs for the National League Central champion Milwaukee Brewers this past season. Washington has really been the only other team linked to Fielder.

You'd figure he'd take his time here, but we are less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting. In fact, no nine-figure deal has ever been agreed to after December.

I think he wants Texas and is just waiting to see how this Darvish thing pans out. Fielder must have some sort of assurance from the Rangers that he is still heavily in their plans for him to wait this out.

Seattle may have been an option, but with its deal for Jesus Montero over the weekend that probably puts them out of the running. The same goes for the Chicago Cubs, who acquired San Diego first baseman Anthony Rizzo last week.

A new team, though, may have entered the fray for Fielder's services on Tuesday when it was learned that Detroit Tigers' designated hitter Victor Martinez would be lost for the season with a torn ACL.

The Tigers, though, appear more likely to go the Johnny Damon, Carlos Pena route rather than Fielder. The same can be said about the New York Yankees, who dealt their DH over the weekend to Seattle.

I've thought all along that Fielder to Texas was basically a fait accompli.

Do they need him? Of course not. This is a lineup that last year finished first in batting average (.283), second in homers (210) and third in runs scored (855).

But you can always use a bat like Fielder's especially when your starting rotation is somewhat of a question mark without Wilson. Imagine the big man in the middle of a lineup that already includes Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, Michael Young and Mike Napoli.

Speaking of Hamilton. He could be the causality in all of this. He signed a two-year extension last year and is eligible to become a free agent at season's end. Maybe the Rangers are willing to bite the bullet on some added payroll this year, knowing they have no intention of paying the oft-injured Hamilton next year.

We've been reminded all too often baseball is a business. You tell me who you'd rather deal out a $100 million deal to, Prince or Hamilton? When healthy Hamilton is probably the better hitter, but he is always nicked up. Plus who knows what the years of drug abuse did to his body.

Say what you want about Fielder, but he is never hurt. Last year he was the only player in the majors to play in all 162 games and despite his bulky presence, he has averaged 160 games in his six full seasons in the league.

There are ways to make this work. Fielder and his agent Scott Boras know this. Darvish is the one with the deadline. Once that's settled Fielder will go shortly thereafter and I fully expect him to land in Arlington.

If not then watch his presser in D.C. next week and don't believe a word he says when he says the Nationals were his first choice all along.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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